Ages of 24 widespread tephras erupted since 30,000 years ago in New Zealand, with re-evaluation of the timing and palaeoclimatic implications of the Lateglacial cool episode recorded at Kaipo bog

Tephras are important for the NZ-INTIMATE project because they link all three records comprising the composite inter-regional stratotype developed for the New Zealand climate event stratigraphy (NZ-CES). Here we firstly report new calendar ages for 24 widespread marker tephras erupted since 30,000 calendar (cal.) years ago in New Zealand to help facilitate their use as chronostratigraphic dating tools for the NZ-CES and for other palaeoenvironmental and geological applications. The selected tephras comprise 12 rhyolitic tephras from Taupo, nine rhyolitic tephras from Okataina, one peralkaline rhyolitic tephra from Tuhua, and one andesitic tephra each from Tongariro and Egmont/Taranaki volcanic centres. Age models for the tephras were obtained using three methods: (i) 14C-based wiggle-match dating of wood from trees killed by volcanic eruptions (these dates published previously); (ii) flexible depositional modelling of a high-resolution 14C-dated age-depth sequence at Kaipo bog using two Bayesian-based modelling programs, Bacon and OxCal's P_Sequence function, and the IntCal09 data set (with SH offset correction -44 ± 17 yr); and (iii) calibration of 14C ages using OxCal's Tau_Boundary function and the SHCal04 and IntCal09 data sets. Our preferred dates or calibrated ages for the 24 tephras are as follows (youngest to oldest, all mid-point or mean ages of 95% probability ranges): Kaharoa AD 1314 ± 12; Taupo (Unit Y) AD 232 ± 10; Mapara (Unit X) 2059 ± 118 cal. yr BP; Whakaipo (Unit V) 2800 ± 60 cal. yr BP; Waimihia (Unit S) 3401 ± 108 cal. yr BP; Stent (Unit Q) 4322 ± 112 cal. yr BP; Unit K 5111 ± 210 cal. yr BP; Whakatane 5526 ± 145 cal. yr BP; Tuhua 6577 ± 547 cal. yr BP; Mamaku 7940 ± 257 cal. yr BP; Rotoma 9423 ± 120 cal. yr BP; Opepe (Unit E) 9991 ± 160 cal. yr BP; Poronui (Unit C) 11,170 ± 115 cal. yr BP; Karapiti (Unit B) 11,460 ± 172 cal. yr BP; Okupata 11,767 ± 192 cal. yr BP; Konini (bed b) 11,880 ± 183 cal. yr BP; Waiohau 14,009 ± 155 cal. yr BP; Rotorua 15,635 ± 412 cal. yr BP; Rerewhakaaitu 17,496 ± 462 cal. yr BP; Okareka 21,858 ± 290 cal. yr BP; Te Rere 25,171 ± 964 cal. yr BP; Kawakawa/Oruanui 25,358 ± 162 cal. yr BP; Poihipi 28,446 ± 670 cal. yr BP; and Okaia 28,621 ± 1428 cal. yr BP. Secondly, we have re-dated the start and end of the Lateglacial cool episode (climate event NZce-3 in the NZ-CES), previously referred to as the Lateglacial climate reversal, as defined at Kaipo bog in eastern North Island, New Zealand, using both Bacon and OxCal P_Sequence modelling with the IntCal09 data set. The ca 1200-yr-long cool episode, indicated by a lithostratigraphic change in the Kaipo peat sequence to grey mud with lowered carbon content, and a high-resolution pollen-derived cooling signal, began 13,739 ± 125 cal. yr BP and ended 12,550 ± 140 cal. yr BP (mid-point ages of the 95% highest posterior density regions, Bacon modelling). The OxCal modelling, generating almost identical ages, confirmed these ages. The Lateglacial cool episode (ca 13.8-12.6 cal. ka BP) thus overlaps a large part of the entire Antarctic Cold Reversal chronozone (ca 14.1-12.4 cal. ka BP or ca 14.6-12.8 cal. ka BP), and an early part of the Greenland Stadial-1 (Younger Dryas) chronozone (ca 12.9-11.7 cal. ka BP). The timing of the Lateglacial cool episode at Kaipo is broadly consistent with the latitudinal patterns in the Antarctic Cold Reversal signal suggested for the New Zealand archipelago from marine and terrestrial records, and with records from southern South America

Bayesian analysis of 210Pb dating

In many studies of environmental change of the past few centuries, 210Pb dating is used to obtain chronologies for sedimentary sequences. One of the most commonly used approaches to estimate the ages of depths in a sequence is to assume a constant rate of supply (CRS) or influx of `unsupported' 210Pb from the atmosphere, together with a constant or varying amount of `supported' 210Pb. Current 210Pb dating models do not use a proper statistical framework and thus provide poor estimates of errors. Here we develop a new model for 210Pb dating, where both ages and values of supported and unsupported 210Pb form part of the parameters. We apply our model to a case study from Canada as well as to some simulated examples. Our model can extend beyond the current CRS approach, deal with asymmetric errors and mix 210Pb with other types of dating, thus obtaining more robust, realistic and statistically better defined estimates.Comment: 22 Pages, 4 Figure

A numerical approach to 14C wiggle-match dating of organic deposits: best fits and confidence intervals

14C wiggle-match dating (WMD) of peat deposits uses the non-linear relationship between 14C age and calendar age to match the shape of a sequence of closely spaced peat 14C dates with the 14C calibration curve. A numerical approach to WMD enables the quantitative assessment of various possible wiggle-match solutions and of calendar year confidence intervals for sequences of 14C dates. We assess the assumptions, advantages, and limitations of the method. Several case-studies show that WMD results in more precise chronologies than when individual 14C dates are calibrated. WMD is most successful during periods with major excursions in the 14C calibration curve (e.g., in one case WMD could narrow down confidence intervals from 230 to 36 yr).

Linking past cultural developments to palaeoenvironmental changes in Estonia

Connections between environmental and cultural changes are analysed in Estonia during the past c. 4,500 years. Records of cereal-type pollen as (agri)cultural indices are compared with high-resolution palaeohydrological and annual mean temperature reconstructions from a selection of Estonian bogs and lakes (and Lake Igelsjön in Sweden). A broad-scale comparison shows increases in the percentage of cereal-type pollen during a decreasing trend in annual mean temperatures over the past c. 4,300 years, suggesting a certain independence of agrarian activities from environmental conditions at the regional level. The first cereal-type pollen in the region is found from a period with a warm and dry climate. A slow increase in pollen of cultivated land is seen around the beginning of the late Bronze Age, a slight increase at the end of the Roman Iron Age and a significant increase at the beginning of the Middle Ages. In a few cases increases in agricultural pollen percentages occur in the periods of warming. Stagnation and regression occurs in the periods of cooling, but regression at individual sites may also be related to warmer climate episodes. The cooling at c. 400–300 cal b.p., during the ‘Little Ice Age’ coincides with declines in cereal-type and herb pollen curves. These may not, however, be directly related to the climate change, because they coincide with war activities in the region

High resolution MRI for preoperative work-up of neonates with an anorectal malformation: a direct comparison with distal pressure colostography/fistulography

OBJECTIVE: To compare MRI and colostography/fistulography in neonates with anorectal malformations (ARM), using surgery as reference standard. METHODS: Thirty-three neonates (22 boys) with ARM were included. All patients underwent both preoperative high-resolution MRI (without sedation or contrast instillation) and colostography/fistulography. The Krickenbeck classification was used to classify anorectal malformations, and the level of the rectal ending in relation to the levator muscle was evaluated. RESULTS: Subjects included nine patients with a bulbar recto-urethral fistula, six with a prostatic recto-urethral fistula, five with a vestibular fistula, five with a cloacal malformation, four without fistula, one with a H-type fistula, one with anal stenosis, one with a rectoperineal fistula and one with a bladderneck fistula. MRI and colostography/fistulography predicted anatomy in 88 % (29/33) and 61 % (20/33) of cases, respectively (p = 0.012). The distal end of the rectal pouch was correctly predicted in 88 % (29/33) and 67 % (22/33) of cases, respectively (p = 0.065). The length of the common channel in cloacal malformation was predicted with MRI in all (100 %, 5/5) and in 80 % of cases (4/5) with colostography/fistulography. Two bowel perforations occurred during colostography/fistulography. CONCLUSIONS: MRI provides the most accurate evaluation of ARM and should be considered a serious alternative to colostography/fistulography during preoperative work-up. KEY POINTS: • High-resolution MRI is feasible without the use of sedation or anaesthesia. • MRI is more accurate than colostography/fistulography in visualising the type of ARM. • MRI is as reliable as colostography/fistulography in predicting the level of the rectal pouch. • Colostography/fistulography can be complicated by bowel perforation

High resolution MRI for preoperative work-up of neonates with an anorectal malformation: a direct comparison with distal pressure colostography/fistulography

Objective: To compare MRI and colostography/fistulography in neonates with anorectal malformations (ARM), using surgery as reference standard. Methods: Thirty-three neonates (22 boys) with ARM were included. All patients underwent both preoperative high-resolution MRI (without sedation or contrast instillation) and colostography/fistulography. The Krickenbeck classification was used to classify anorectal malformations, and the level of the rectal ending in relation to the levator muscle was evaluated. Results: Subjects included nine patients with a bulbar recto-urethral fistula, six with a prostatic recto-urethral fistula, five with a vestibular fistula, five with a cloacal malformation, four without fistula, one with a H-type fistula, one with anal stenosis, one with a rectoperineal fistula and one with a bladderneck fistula. MRI and colostography/fistulography predicted anatomy in 88 % (29/33) and 61 % (20/33) of cases, respectively (p = 0.012). The distal end of the rectal pouch was correctly predicted in 88 % (29/33) and 67 % (22/33) of cases, respectively (p = 0.065). The length of the common channel in cloacal malformation was predicted with MRI in all (100 %, 5/5) and in 80 % of cases (4/5) with colostography/fistulography. Two bowel perforations occurred during colostography/fistulography. Conclusions: MRI provides the most accurate evaluation of ARM and should be considered a serious alternative to colostography/fistulography during preoperative work-up. Key Points: • High-resolution MRI is feasible without the use of sedation or anaesthesia. • MRI is more accurate than colostography/fistulography in visualising the type of ARM. • MRI is as reliable as colostography/fistulography in predicting the level of the rectal pouch. • Colostography/fistulography can be complicated by bowel perforation